The Gases — Industrial Gases
Boring, monopolistic, and a chokepoint that touches every industrial process on Earth.
Every semiconductor fab, every steel mill, every hospital, every fertilizer plant, every space-launch facility runs on industrial gases : oxygen, nitrogen, hydrogen, argon, helium, plus exotic specialty gases (fluorine compounds, dopants). The industry is a tight oligopoly : Linde (US/Germany), Air Products (US), Air Liquide (France) plus Japan's Nippon Sanso. Linde and Air Products together hold ~50% of global industrial gas revenue. Multi-decade take-or-pay contracts with utility-like cash flows. Boring, secular, and largely insulated from any single end-market cycle.
The two leaders are the literal pipes. Every fab built — for AI chips or anything else — requires gas. Every blue/green hydrogen project requires their equipment. Capex by Linde and APD is a leading indicator for global industrial activity.
2 names on the watchlist
Largest industrial gas company globally — utility-like compounder
Largest industrial gas company in the world after the 2018 Praxair-Linde merger. ~30% global market share. Supplies oxygen, nitrogen, hydrogen, argon, plus electronics specialty gases (the latter to TSMC, Samsung, Intel — directly chokepoint-relevant to AI). 80%+ of revenue is take-or-pay. Best-in-class capital allocation: routinely 15%+ ROIC. Operating margins 25%+.
#3 globally + bet-the-company hydrogen pivot
More mid-cap than Linde, more exposed to large hydrogen projects, and recently shaken up by activist investor Mantle Ridge — which forced board changes and a strategic refresh in 2024-25. The NEOM hydrogen plant (Saudi Arabia, $8B+ capex) is the bet-the-company project. If it works, APD is the leader of the hydrogen transition. If not, APD becomes a value trap. Higher beta than LIN.