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Not financial advice. Independent research, not investment recommendations. The author and website make no representation as to accuracy or completeness. Do your own due diligence before acting on anything you read here.

Not investment advice

Everything published on this website is editorial commentary and independent research. Nothing on this site constitutes investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation of an offer to do so. The author is not a registered investment adviser, broker-dealer, or financial planner, and the content here is not personalised to your circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Consult a qualified, licensed financial professional before making any investment decision.

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Prices, financial data, market shares, business descriptions, and forward-looking statements published on this site are sourced from third parties (Stooq, Yahoo Finance, company filings, analyst notes, and the named research providers in the sourcing block). The author and the site do not independently verify all of this information and make no representation or warranty — express or implied — as to its accuracy, completeness, or timeliness. Any data point on this page may be wrong, stale, or out of context. Re-verify against primary sources before making decisions.

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Sourcing, caveats, and limits

Scope. This v7 build covers ~230 chokepoint names across 12 sectors and 51 chokepoints. Sectors I-VI (AI, Robotics, Non-AI Energy, Materials, Wildcards, Space) are preserved from v6 unchanged. Sector II adds a 6th choke (Defense Robotics & Autonomy). Sectors VII-XII are all new in v7: Memory, Quantum Picks-and-Shovels, Water, Cooling, Healthcare, and Power Electronics. The new sectors were built from research compiled mid-to-late May 2026 with prices and market caps reflecting that period.

Prices. Verified for May 22-27, 2026 on the highest-priority tickers (SK Hynix, Micron, Kioxia, IONQ, Vertiv, AWK, ERII, Ajinomoto). Other prices are best-available late-May quotes and should be re-verified before acting. Some prices flagged as uncertain in source materials (Lindsay, Carrier, Hoya, Infineon, Keysight, IPG Photonics, PolyPeptide, Modine, nVent, Red Cat, Cadre, Elbit) — verify before sizing positions. All prices are point-in-time and should not be treated as research-grade quotes.

Caveats specific to v7 additions. (1) Late-May re-rating risk — Memory and AI-infra names saw dramatic late-May re-rating; Micron and SK Hynix both crossed $1T market cap on May 26-27, 2026. Valuations look extreme on traditional metrics and price perpetual growth — a modest cyclical correction would cause large drawdowns. (2) Cycle risk on memory and equipment — even an AI-driven "supercycle" eventually ends; Advantest analysts already flag a possible 2027 cycle moderation. (3) Quantum is inning 1-2 — pure-play quantum hardware stocks trade like lottery tickets, not earnings stories; the picks-and-shovels (Oxford, Coherent, MKS, Keysight, Hamamatsu, FormFactor) are the more durable exposure. Helium-3 supply (~1 kg/year from tritium decay vs. demand of "at least 40,000 liters per year" per AAAS) is a real long-term constraint not yet priced. (4) Bachem/Carlyle — a widely-rumored Carlyle stake in Bachem could not be confirmed; treat as unconfirmed; the Grogg family appears to retain majority post-founder's death (June 2025). (5) Privatized names — Catalent (Novo Holdings, Dec 2024), JSR Corp (JIC, June 2024), Shinko Electric (JIC consortium) all delisted; not investable. (6) HBM4 hybrid bonding timing — HBM4 stuck with microbumps (10μm pad pitch doesn't force hybrid bonding); BESI's revenue ramp shifts to HBM4E/HBM5 (2027-28). (7) Geopolitical risk — US-China export controls (advanced ATE, EUV equipment) remain in flux; China is ~20-25% of Advantest revenue. (8) Activist campaigns at Ajinomoto (Palliser), Daikin (Elliott), and others affect valuations and capital allocation. (9) Two-tier memory market — HBM is the bull case; commodity DRAM/NAND has historically been brutally cyclical. (10) Valuation calibration — many of these names trade at 50x+ forward earnings; use rolling P/E vs 5-year averages and PEG ratios as secondary entry-timing checks.

Sourcing. Several market-share data points come from single sources (e.g., GMInsights for Vertiv's 11.3% liquid cooling share; Counterpoint for HBM splits; Mordor Intelligence for Illumina's 60% sequencing share; ICVTank/Business Research Insights for dilution-fridge market). Where possible these were corroborated by SEC filings, company press releases, or analyst reports (Bernstein, UBS, Needham, Evercore ISI). Substack and Ainvest sources were used cautiously and only when corroborated.

This is a research thesis, not investment advice. Every name on this page is a thesis, not a guarantee. Bottleneck thinking is right when the buildout continues. If hyperscalers cut capex in a hard recession, every CHOKE on this page de-rates together — that's the correlation risk to size around. None of this is investment advice. Re-verify all prices, market caps, and contract details before transacting.