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APD
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#3 globally + bet-the-company hydrogen pivot
What they do
More mid-cap than Linde, more exposed to large hydrogen projects, and recently shaken up by activist investor Mantle Ridge — which forced board changes and a strategic refresh in 2024-25. The NEOM hydrogen plant (Saudi Arabia, $8B+ capex) is the bet-the-company project. If it works, APD is the leader of the hydrogen transition. If not, APD becomes a value trap. Higher beta than LIN.