Sector III · 4 chokepoints · 14 names

Energy

The Other Watts — Non-AI Energy

Imagine the US electrical grid is a 100-year-old apartment building. Most of the wiring was installed when the only thing you plugged in was a lamp and a refrigerator. Now suddenly everyone on every floor wants an electric car, a heat pump, induction stoves, a home battery, and — yes — a small data center in the basement. The building does not have the capacity. The fuse box is melting.

To fix it you need: more electricity (which means more uranium, more natural gas, more reactors), much bigger fuse boxes and wires (transformers, switchgear, transmission lines), and the crews to install it all (electrical contractors are now sold out 18+ months in advance).

Strip out the AI data-center demand entirely and the grid still needs trillions in spending over the next 15 years. That spending lands on a tiny handful of public companies — and unlike the AI story, these names are not yet trading like the future already happened.

The 4 chokepoints

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Choke 01

The Fuel — Uranium & Nuclear Fuel Cycle

Uranium Mining · Conversion · Enrichment · HALEU

Nuclear is back. The fuel supply chain is not.

Three years ago, nuclear was a dying industry. Now every major economy is racing to restart reactors and order new ones — driven by AI, yes, but also by EV electrification, industrial decarbonization, and a brutal lesson from European gas dependence. The uranium fuel cycle has four stages : (1) mining the raw ore, (2) conversion to uranium hexafluoride gas, (3) enrichment to reactor-grade material, and (4) fabrication into fuel pellets. Russia controlled ~35% of global enrichment until 2024 sanctions. The West is scrambling to onshore it. The new "HALEU" (high-assay low-enriched uranium) needed for next-gen small modular reactors is essentially a two-supplier-on-Earth situation: Centrus and Russia's TENEX.

Why this is a chokepoint

You cannot build a new reactor without fuel. You cannot enrich fuel without centrifuges that take 5-7 years to build. The bottleneck is structural, multi-year, and getting tighter.

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CCJ

Cameco Corporation

World's largest Western-aligned uranium producer + 49% of Westinghouse

Canadian miner with the highest-grade uranium deposits in the world (Cigar Lake, McArthur River). Owns 49% of Westinghouse Electric (joint with Brookfield) — the dominant Western reactor OEM. Three segments: uranium mining, fuel services (conversion + fabrication), and Westinghouse (reactor sales + services). "Tier-1 utility supplier" — meaning every Western nuclear utility has them under long-term contract .

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LEU

Centrus Energy

Only US HALEU producer — the bottleneck-of-the-bottleneck

Operates the only commercial HALEU (high-assay low-enriched uranium) production line in the United States — at Piketon, Ohio, under DOE contract. HALEU is required for essentially every advanced reactor design (Oklo, X-energy, TerraPower, etc.). Until Centrus scales, every next-gen reactor is gated on this one facility.

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UEC

Uranium Energy Corp

Largest US-based uranium producer — ISR-method low-cost mines

Wyoming and Texas ISR operations producing at low cost. Hub-and-spoke model centralized at Irigaray. "America First" uranium — political tailwind plus contracts with Energy Fuels' partners. Smaller and more leveraged to spot price than CCJ. Higher beta both up and down.

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NXE

NexGen Energy

Owns Rook I in Saskatchewan — the largest undeveloped uranium project

No revenue yet. The entire bet is on getting Rook I built on schedule and budget — typical for a junior miner, but at scale (~30M lbs/year potential, vs world annual production of ~150M lbs). If/when it comes online, it's a top-3 uranium producer overnight. Dilution risk between now and then. Highly speculative.

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