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Sector V · 10 chokepoints · 22 names

Space

The Orbital Stack — Space

Imagine the world is suddenly building 100 highways at once — but not on Earth. The highways are in orbit, on the Moon, and between the two. Most of the news, most of the money, and most of the stock chatter is about which rocket companies will be the biggest, which billionaires will plant their flags first, and which constellation will beam internet to the most people.

Meanwhile, in a quiet building in Manchester, New Hampshire, there's one company that makes the rad-hard chip every NASA mission relies on. There's one small factory in Jacksonville, Florida, that builds the roll-out solar panels powering the ISS and the Lunar Gateway. There's three Western suppliers of the engines that move satellites once they're up there. There's two companies with hourly-revisit cameras pointed at the Earth, and one of them just invented a way to sell whole satellites — plus their data feeds — to allied governments by the dozen.

SpaceX is the gravity. It dominates 90% of payload mass to orbit. It is also private — you cannot buy it. So every dollar that wants "space exposure" gets funneled into the public pure-plays. If you own a piece of the small suppliers, you don't care which rocket company wins. You're getting paid by all of them, by NASA, by the Space Force, and increasingly by Sweden and Japan and Germany. That's the narrow places. Same playbook as AI and Robotics. Different orbit.

Wildcard · Sector-Wide Catalyst

When SpaceX goes public.

SpaceX has not filed publicly as of May 21, 2026 — but tender-offer valuations have ranged from $350 billion to over $400 billion through 2025–2026, and both a Starlink-only spin and a whole-company IPO have been actively rumored. Whenever the filing lands — weeks, months, or quarters away — it reprices the entire space asset class in a single trading session. SpaceX flies roughly 90% of payload mass to orbit and is the gravitational center of every name on this page. Position sizing must account for this; the IPO is simultaneously the biggest sector catalyst and the biggest tail risk.

The 10 chokepoints

Choke 01

The Ride — Orbital Launch Vehicles

Electron · Neutron · Alpha · Eclipse · MLV-Class Rockets

Five companies in the world can put a payload in orbit on a Western rocket. Only two are publicly listed pure-plays.

Launch is the gate to space. SpaceX flies roughly nine out of every ten kilograms of payload that leave Earth — and it is private. ULA (Boeing/Lockheed) and Blue Origin are not separately listed. Among public pure-plays, Rocket Lab is the only company with a flight-proven, regularly cadenced orbital rocket (Electron, 21 launches in 2025 at 100% success), and it is building Neutron to compete in the SpaceX-vacated medium-lift gap. Firefly Aerospace IPO'd in August 2025 on the back of becoming the first commercial company in history to fully succeed at a Moon landing. There is essentially no Western "medium-lift" rocket between Falcon 9 and the heavy New Glenn / Vulcan class — that gap is the prize Rocket Lab and Firefly are racing to fill.

Why this is a chokepoint

If you can't get to orbit, nothing else on this page works. With SpaceX still private, every dollar of public "space exposure" has been funneled into Rocket Lab — pushing valuations to extremes but with real revenue underneath.

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Only public Western company that builds AND operates its own orbital rocket and its own satellites

Operates Electron (21 launches in 2025 at 100% success) and is in final integration of Neutron , an 8-ton-to-LEO medium-lift rocket targeting first flight Q4 2026. Q1 2026 revenue $200.3M (+63.5% YoY); backlog $2.2B; GAAP gross margin 38.2%. Signed largest-ever launch contract during Q1 (five Neutron flights for a confidential customer through 2029). Selected alongside Raytheon for Golden Dome's Space-Based Interceptor program; won a $190M MACH-TB 2.0 hypersonic block buy. Closed the Mynaric acquisition (laser inter-satellite links) Q1; signed definitive agreement for Motiv Space Systems (Mars-proven robotics). Liquidity exceeds $2B.

Only commercial company in history to fully soft-land on the Moon — plus a small rocket and a medium-lift in joint development

Operates the Alpha small launcher (return-to-flight cleared late 2025), the Blue Ghost lunar lander (Mission 1 completed all 17 objectives on the Moon, March 2, 2025 — first fully-successful US lunar landing since Apollo 17), and the Elytra orbital transfer vehicle. Developing the medium-lift Eclipse rocket with Northrop Grumman ($50M strategic investment). FY25 revenue $159.9M (+163% YoY); FY26 guidance $420–450M. Blue Ghost Mission 4 awarded by NASA July 2025 at $176.7M; backlog above $1.3B. Selected for Golden Dome SBI; closed the SciTec acquisition for missile-warning data processing.