The Copper — Wires Everywhere
The world will need 50% more copper by 2035. We're not opening enough mines.
Copper goes into every wire, every motor, every transformer, every cable, every battery interconnect, every data-center busbar . The International Energy Agency projects global copper demand growing ~50% by 2035 driven by EVs, the grid, AI, and electrification. Supply: roughly flat . New mines take 15+ years from discovery to first production due to permitting, environmental review, and indigenous land rights. The math doesn't work — which means prices must rise to ration demand, or capacity must come online faster. Either way, the producers with existing mines win.
You can substitute aluminum for copper in some applications. You cannot substitute copper for itself. The deficit is structural and multi-year.
2 names on the watchlist
Largest publicly traded copper producer — Grasberg, Cerro Verde, Morenci
The largest publicly traded copper producer in the world . Operates Grasberg (Indonesia — also the world's largest gold mine as byproduct), Cerro Verde (Peru), and Morenci (Arizona). Highest leverage to copper price among the majors — earnings move ~$1B per $1/lb copper price change. Indonesia operating environment is the perennial wild card.
Lowest-cost copper producer — Peru + Mexico operations
Less reported, less covered than FCX but with lower cash cost per pound and longer mine life . Toquepala and Cuajone in Peru, Buenavista in Mexico. Pays meaningful dividend. The "compounder" of copper miners — slower beta but durable.