The Rare Earths — Magnets for Everything
You cannot build a motor without a permanent magnet. You cannot build a permanent magnet without rare earths. China makes 90% of both.
Every electric motor — in an EV, a wind turbine, a robot, a missile guidance system, a smartphone vibrator — uses a neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) permanent magnet . For high-temperature applications (motors, especially EV drive motors) you additionally need dysprosium and terbium (the "heavy" rare earths). China refines ~90% of rare earths globally and produces ~95% of permanent magnets . The MP Materials and USA Rare Earth names appear in AI Choke 01 (rare earths flow to AI lasers and magnets); they belong here too because the magnet thesis spans every other sector. We add net-new exposure via Lynas — the only at-scale ex-China rare-earth refiner.
China imposed export controls on heavy rare earths in 2025. If the Nov 27, 2026 deadline isn't extended, prices spike and any non-Chinese supply becomes strategically priceless.
2 names on the watchlist
Only at-scale ex-China rare-earth miner + refiner
Australian miner that operates the only commercial-scale rare-earth refining facility outside China — in Malaysia. Building a second refinery in Texas (Lynas USA, ~2026 first production) with US Department of Defense partnership. Owns the Mount Weld mine in Western Australia, one of the highest-grade rare-earth deposits on Earth.
Covered in detail in AI Choke 01 — included here for completeness
Both names sit primarily in the AI rare-earths chokepoint above. The thesis here is identical with an added flavor: EV motors and humanoid robots use the same magnets as AI laser systems . Any pure-play rare-earth name is implicitly a multi-sector chokepoint. See AI Sector for full cards.