The Earth — Raw Materials & Substrates

Indium phosphide crystal grower — the laser-material monopoly

A small U.S. company that grows the indium phosphide crystals every AI laser is built from . Outside China, there are essentially two suppliers — AXT is one of them. NVIDIA's $4 billion in 2026 InP supply commitments effectively flow through this company. Source thesis calls it 'The Strait of AXTi v2.0.'

RF + photonics + InP photodetectors

MACOM makes the tiny detector chips that catch the light coming out of fiber-optic cables . They also took a strategic stake in IQE, which makes the wafers those detectors are built on. They sit one layer downstream from AXTI in the same supply chain.

Silicon-on-insulator wafers — the photonics foundation

Soitec is the French company that makes the special silicon wafers every silicon-photonics chip is built on top of . As AI shifts from copper to light, every photonics chip needs one of these as the foundation. OTC listing — less liquid for U.S. brokerages.

Mountain Pass — the only operating U.S. rare earths mine

Operates the only meaningful rare-earth mine and refinery in the U.S. — Mountain Pass in California. Building a magnet factory in Texas. Has Department of Defense investment and Apple as a customer. If China cuts off rare earth exports, this becomes a national-security asset overnight.

Ex-China heavy rare-earth metallization

Tiny pure-play on the step that takes raw rare earth oxides and turns them into useful metal alloys . Pentagon contracts in hand. The downstream cousin to MP. OTC — small-cap, illiquid, speculative.

Only U.S. antimony source — Stibnite Mine, Idaho

Reopening the Stibnite Gold Mine in Idaho — the only meaningful U.S. source of antimony (a strategic mineral used in munitions, semiconductors, and batteries; China controls 48% of supply). Department of Defense already gave them $24.8M, and the U.S. Export-Import Bank wrote a letter about a $1.8B loan. After China's antimony ban, the stock jumped 19%. Production isn't until 2028, so the trade is the news cycle, not the cash flow.

Texas rare earths + magnets

Building a U.S. heavy-rare-earth and magnet operation in Texas — a potential second domestic supplier to MP Materials. Pre-meaningful-production. If U.S. policy continues subsidizing domestic rare earth production, smaller names like this can re-rate violently. Higher dilution risk than MP.

Uranium + rare earth processing — two-shot bet

Energy Fuels operates the only U.S. mill that can actually refine rare-earth concentrates into the separated oxides downstream customers need — and they produce uranium on the side. Two simultaneous bets: critical minerals AND nuclear fuel. Rare combo of optionality. Mill ramp execution is the swing factor.

Canadian germanium recovery from zinc

Major Canadian miner that recovers germanium (used in fiber optics and infrared sensors) as a byproduct of zinc smelting . China controls 60% of germanium supply. If Chinese export controls re-impose on Nov 27, 2026, Teck's tiny germanium output becomes strategically priceless. Most of revenue is base metals though — germanium is rounding-error revenue. Move requires the China event.