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Choke 03 · Sector III

The Pipes — Natural Gas & LNG Midstream

LNG Export · Pipelines · Permian Gas

The bridge fuel that's now a 30-year fuel. Permian gas is structurally constrained.

The "energy transition" has quietly become an "energy addition" — solar and wind are growing, but so is natural gas, and so is nuclear, all simultaneously. The reason: load growth is bigger than any single source can fill . US LNG export capacity is on track to double by 2028. European gas dependence on Russia is gone, replaced by US/Qatar LNG. Permian Basin associated gas (gas that comes out as a byproduct of oil drilling) is so abundant it's often flared — and the constraint is pipeline takeaway. Three names dominate: Cheniere (the largest US LNG exporter), Williams (gas pipelines), and Kinder Morgan (the largest US midstream by mile of pipe).

Why this is a chokepoint

You can build a new LNG export terminal in 4-5 years if you start now. You cannot build a new long-haul pipeline in less than 8 years anywhere in the US (permits). The infrastructure that exists today is structurally undersized.

3 names on the watchlist

Largest US LNG exporter — Sabine Pass + Corpus Christi terminals

Operates the two largest US LNG export terminals — Sabine Pass (Louisiana, 30 mtpa) and Corpus Christi (Texas, 15 mtpa + expansion to 35 mtpa). Long-term sale-and-purchase agreements ("take-or-pay") with European utilities, Korean utilities, and oil majors. ~90% of revenue is contracted — closest thing to a utility in the LNG space. Stage 3 Corpus Christi expansion ramping through 2027.

Largest US gas pipeline operator — Transco backbone

Operates ~33,000 miles of natural gas pipelines. Transco connects Gulf Coast LNG terminals to East Coast cities — the most important single piece of gas infrastructure in the US. Multiple expansions underway. Steady, slow compounder with a real yield. Data-center gas demand is a small but accelerating tailwind.

Largest US midstream by total pipeline mileage — 82,000 miles

Boring, steady, ~6% dividend yield. Carries about 40% of US natural gas at some point in its journey to end users . Permian-to-Gulf takeaway projects (Gulf Coast Express, Permian Highway) are the growth pieces. Re-rating possible if data-center gas demand becomes a Wall Street narrative. Bond-like steadiness, equity-like upside if rates fall.