The Fuel — Uranium & Nuclear Fuel Cycle
Nuclear is back. The fuel supply chain is not.
Three years ago, nuclear was a dying industry. Now every major economy is racing to restart reactors and order new ones — driven by AI, yes, but also by EV electrification, industrial decarbonization, and a brutal lesson from European gas dependence. The uranium fuel cycle has four stages : (1) mining the raw ore, (2) conversion to uranium hexafluoride gas, (3) enrichment to reactor-grade material, and (4) fabrication into fuel pellets. Russia controlled ~35% of global enrichment until 2024 sanctions. The West is scrambling to onshore it. The new "HALEU" (high-assay low-enriched uranium) needed for next-gen small modular reactors is essentially a two-supplier-on-Earth situation: Centrus and Russia's TENEX.
You cannot build a new reactor without fuel. You cannot enrich fuel without centrifuges that take 5-7 years to build. The bottleneck is structural, multi-year, and getting tighter.
4 names on the watchlist
World's largest Western-aligned uranium producer + 49% of Westinghouse
Canadian miner with the highest-grade uranium deposits in the world (Cigar Lake, McArthur River). Owns 49% of Westinghouse Electric (joint with Brookfield) — the dominant Western reactor OEM. Three segments: uranium mining, fuel services (conversion + fabrication), and Westinghouse (reactor sales + services). "Tier-1 utility supplier" — meaning every Western nuclear utility has them under long-term contract .
Only US HALEU producer — the bottleneck-of-the-bottleneck
Operates the only commercial HALEU (high-assay low-enriched uranium) production line in the United States — at Piketon, Ohio, under DOE contract. HALEU is required for essentially every advanced reactor design (Oklo, X-energy, TerraPower, etc.). Until Centrus scales, every next-gen reactor is gated on this one facility.
Largest US-based uranium producer — ISR-method low-cost mines
Wyoming and Texas ISR operations producing at low cost. Hub-and-spoke model centralized at Irigaray. "America First" uranium — political tailwind plus contracts with Energy Fuels' partners. Smaller and more leveraged to spot price than CCJ. Higher beta both up and down.
Owns Rook I in Saskatchewan — the largest undeveloped uranium project
No revenue yet. The entire bet is on getting Rook I built on schedule and budget — typical for a junior miner, but at scale (~30M lbs/year potential, vs world annual production of ~150M lbs). If/when it comes online, it's a top-3 uranium producer overnight. Dilution risk between now and then. Highly speculative.