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Choke 04 · Sector III

The Crews & Wire — Grid Build-out (Non-AI-Specific)

Transmission · Electrical Contractors · Cables · Geothermal

Even with zero data-center demand, the grid is one of the biggest secular spends of this decade.

Two-thirds of US transmission lines were built before 1970. Now we're trying to add EVs, heat pumps, factory electrification, and yes data centers on top. The result: multi-year backlogs for the firms that actually build the grid . MYR Group, MasTec, Quanta Services — these are the electrical contractors that put up high-voltage lines. Prysmian, Nexans — the European cable giants that make the actual transmission wire (very few producers worldwide; subsea cable is a true duopoly). Ormat — the dominant geothermal developer for behind-the-meter clean baseload. None of these names need AI to thrive — they need EVs, heat pumps, and reshoring, all of which are happening simultaneously.

Why this is a chokepoint

The grid is the rate-limiter on the entire electrification thesis. You cannot decarbonize, you cannot reshore, you cannot deploy AI without rebuilding the wires. And the wires are sold out.

4 names on the watchlist

Pure-play electrical contractor — transmission + distribution

One of the largest pure-play transmission & distribution (T&D) electrical contractors in North America. Build power lines, substations, distribution networks. Customers: investor-owned utilities, public power. Backlog at all-time high. Smaller than Quanta (PWR, already in AI section) so the same thesis applies with higher beta.

Multi-segment infrastructure contractor — pipelines + power + comms

Diversified infrastructure: builds pipelines, electric transmission, communications networks, and wind/solar projects . Less pure than MYRG but with broader exposure. Heavy industrial backlog. Operating leverage is significant as utilization rises.

Global cable giant — subsea HVDC duopoly with Nexans

Cables of every kind — from telecom fiber to massive subsea HVDC interconnects that take 5-7 years to manufacture per project. North Sea Link, Viking Link, IFA2 — Prysmian on every one. Acquired Encore Wire (US distribution) in 2024 to crack the North American market. Boring but extremely difficult to disrupt.

Largest pure-play geothermal — behind-the-meter clean baseload

Operates ~1.3 GW of geothermal plants globally, with another ~1 GW in development. The only commercially proven non-nuclear, weather-independent, 24/7 clean baseload . Fervo Energy is the venture-backed competitor; Ormat is the established incumbent. Long PPA structures with hyperscalers (Google was first — others followed). Slow grower but compounding capacity quietly.